Last updated: August 10, 2026.
As of August 10, 2026, the United States and Iran are not in direct negotiations. The two sides are passing messages through intermediaries, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping, and strikes have resumed after a brief pause in late July. There is no ceasefire in force. President Trump described the state of contact on August 9 as "semi-negotiating," saying "we are low-keying it," while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the exchanges "should not be called negotiations."
The war began on February 28, 2026. It has now run for more than five months, and the centre of gravity has shifted from the air campaign to the closed strait and the terms under which Iran will reopen it.
What has changed in the past two weeks
Most recent first. Dates are as reported by the outlets named.
August 9 — Houthi forces claimed a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery in southwestern Saudi Arabia, a facility that processes about 400,000 barrels per day. Saudi authorities said the fire was extinguished and there were no injuries. The Houthis said it was a response to Saudi drone incursions over Saada and Hajjah, and separately claimed an operation against Saudi forces at Mocha on the Red Sea. The attack came two days after Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan.
August 9 — The Pentagon sent a memo urging US defence contractors to increase weapons production, amid reporting that munitions stockpiles have been drawn down by the war.
August 9 — Araghchi said an agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz would not by itself reopen the waterway, and that reopening depends on further conditions conveyed to Washington through intermediaries.
August 8 — Iran signalled it was close to a framework deal with Oman on managing traffic through the strait, while stating it would require concessions from the United States before reopening it. Iranian state media reported lawmakers were awaiting final approval of the framework.
August 7 — Trump said the war "has got to end pretty soon." Brent crude settled at $83.55 a barrel.
August 6 — Iranian state media published a draft plan setting restrictive conditions on ship traffic through the strait, reported to bar US and Israeli-linked vessels and to seek compensation from hostile states. Brent rose 3.8% to close at $82.49; WTI gained about 2.8% to $77.29.
August 5 — Oil eased on hopes of de-escalation, with Brent settling at $79.45 and WTI at $75.22.
July 30 and August 1 — US strikes resumed, after a pause that began on July 24.
The pattern in those two weeks is worth naming plainly: the shooting has not stopped, but the decisive activity is diplomatic and it is running through Muscat rather than between Washington and Tehran directly.
How it got here
Kept short, because the background is context rather than the story.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran after Tehran refused US demands to end all nuclear enrichment. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening attacks, which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the region and closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Since then the diplomatic track has repeatedly started and collapsed:
April 8 — a ceasefire took effect, initially for two weeks, extended indefinitely on April 21.
June 17 — the US and Iranian presidents signed a memorandum of understanding, often called the Islamabad Memorandum, setting a 60-day window to negotiate final terms.
July 8 — Trump announced the ceasefire was over. Both sides had accused the other of violations throughout.
Iran's position since is that it will not negotiate directly while Washington is in breach of the June memorandum. Washington's position is that talks are continuing in a low-key form. Both statements were made in the same 48 hours, and they are not easy to reconcile.
Where it could go next
This section is analysis, not prediction. Treat it accordingly.
A Hormuz deal without a peace deal
This is the nearest-term possibility and the one the past fortnight points at. Iran reaches an arrangement with Oman on managing traffic, shipping partially resumes under conditions, and oil prices fall — without any settlement of the nuclear question or an end to strikes. Araghchi's August 9 comment cuts directly against assuming the deal alone reopens the strait, so even this narrow outcome is not close to certain.
Continued attrition
Strikes continue at the current tempo, the strait stays shut or semi-shut, and regional actors — the Houthis most visibly — keep widening the target set. The August 9 Jazan attack fits this pattern: pressure applied to a third country's energy infrastructure rather than directly between the principals.
Could the US invade Iran on the ground?
Several of the searches that bring people to pages like this one ask exactly that, so it is worth answering rather than dodging.
No US ground invasion has taken place, and the question remains contested among analysts. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group has argued a ground operation is plausible given the trajectory of US decisions, and prediction markets have carried elevated odds on some form of ground action — Kalshi contracts in the 55–65% range on one framing, Polymarket around 70% on open war continuing past June. Prediction markets are sentiment, not evidence, and the specific contract wording matters a great deal to what those numbers mean.
Against that, US force posture has thinned rather than built. The USS Gerald R. Ford left the region in late April; recent reporting puts the carrier presence at the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush. A ground invasion of a country of roughly 90 million people would require a scale of build-up that is difficult to conceal and that has not been reported. Analysts across the spectrum agree the costs would exceed anything the currently assembled forces are structured for.
The honest summary: it is no longer treated as unthinkable, which is itself a change from a year ago, but nothing in the current force posture suggests it is imminent.
What it means in the United States
The clearest domestic effect is at the pump. On February 28, the day the strikes began, the AAA national average for regular gasoline was just under $3 a gallon. It peaked around $4.50 in June. As of August 3 it stood at $4.095, ranging from $3.605 in Indiana to $5.659 in California.
That translates almost mechanically from the strait. With the waterway closed, CNN has reported global markets losing more than 100 million barrels a week of constrained traffic — which is why headlines about a Muscat framework move crude by several percent in a single session. We covered why this specific stretch of water sets the world oil price in our explainer on the Strait of Hormuz, and the mechanics of how that reaches US pumps in why gas prices are rising.
Two other consequences are worth tracking. Shipping and insurance costs across the Gulf remain elevated while the strait is shut, which feeds into goods prices with a lag. And the August 9 Pentagon memo on munitions production is a signal about expected duration — militaries do not ask industry to surge output for a conflict they expect to end within weeks.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current status of the US-Iran conflict?
As of August 10, 2026: active conflict, no ceasefire in force since July 8, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and indirect contact between Washington and Tehran through intermediaries. Iran is negotiating separately with Oman on a framework for the strait.
Is the US at war with Iran?
The United States has been conducting military operations against Iran since February 28, 2026, and Iran has struck back across the region. There has been no formal declaration of war by Congress. In practical terms the two countries are in an armed conflict that has run more than five months.
Could the US invade Iran?
No ground invasion has happened. Some analysts consider it plausible and prediction markets have priced meaningful odds on it, but US carrier presence in the region has decreased since April rather than increased, and no build-up on the scale a ground operation would require has been reported.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
No. It has been closed or heavily restricted since Iran shut it in late February. Iran and Oman are negotiating a framework for managing traffic, but Iran said on August 9 that a deal with Oman does not by itself mean the strait reopens.
Why are gas prices still high?
Because roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally passes through Hormuz, and it is not passing. Prices fell from the June peak on de-escalation hopes but remain well above the pre-war level.
When will the war end?
Unknown. Trump said on August 7 that it "has got to end pretty soon," but no framework for ending it has been agreed, and the June memorandum that was meant to produce one has lapsed in dispute.
The bottom line
Five and a half months in, the war has settled into a form that is neither escalation nor resolution: strikes continuing at a reduced tempo, a closed waterway doing more economic damage than the strikes themselves, and negotiations that both sides describe differently on the same day.
The single indicator worth watching is the Strait of Hormuz. If the Oman framework produces actual traffic through the strait, oil falls and the pressure on both governments changes shape. If it does not, the current pattern — attrition, widening regional attacks, and $4 gasoline — is the base case.
This is a developing story. Figures and events above are dated to the reporting available on August 10, 2026, drawn from CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters, NBC News, ABC News, CNBC and AAA. Where sources characterised the same event differently, both characterisations are given.