The short answer to how long will my money last in retirement is that it depends on four numbers: what you have saved, what you take out each year, what the savings earn, and inflation. Put $500,000 in a portfolio earning 5% a year, take $3,000 a month, and raise that amount 3% a year for inflation, and the money lasts about 16 years and 4 months. Cut the withdrawal to about $1,850 a month and the same savings last 30 years.
The rest of this guide works through those numbers for balances from $300,000 to $1 million, using the same assumptions throughout so you can compare them. Every figure comes from the QuillsCraft money-lasting calculator, which you can use with your own numbers. Prices and rates are in US dollars and current as of September 2026.
How long will my money last in retirement? The four numbers that decide it
Savings are the starting balance you plan to draw down, whether that sits in a 401(k), an IRA or a brokerage account. Withdrawals are what you take out, and they matter most, because every dollar you withdraw stops earning.
The return is what your savings earn after fees. A portfolio weighted toward stocks usually earns more over long periods and swings more along the way. Inflation raises what you need to withdraw each year to keep the same standard of living. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index release.
There is a fifth number that sits behind the question: how long you actually need the money for. A 65-year-old in the US can expect to live another 18.4 years for men and 20.8 years for women on average, according to CDC figures on life expectancy at 65. Those are averages, so plenty of people live well past them, and a couple needs the money to last until the second person dies. Planning for 30 years from age 65 is a common and reasonable margin.
How long $300,000 to $1 million lasts at different withdrawals
This table answers how long will my retirement savings last for four common balances. Every row assumes a 5% annual return and a withdrawal that rises 3% a year with inflation.
| Savings | $2,000 a month | $3,000 a month | $4,000 a month | $5,000 a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 | 14 years, 6 months | 9 years, 2 months | 6 years, 8 months | 5 years, 3 months |
| $500,000 | 27 years | 16 years, 4 months | 11 years, 9 months | 9 years, 2 months |
| $750,000 | 48 years, 9 months | 27 years | 18 years, 10 months | 14 years, 6 months |
| $1,000,000 | 86 years, 9 months | 40 years, 5 months | 27 years | 20 years, 4 months |
Doubling the withdrawal more than halves how long the money lasts, because a bigger withdrawal leaves less money earning a return. And once the withdrawal is small relative to the balance, the money can outlast any realistic retirement, as the $2,000 column shows for $750,000 and $1 million.
If your own numbers fall between these rows, the answer to how long will my money last in retirement will fall between them too. The calculator gives the exact figure for your balance and withdrawal.
How much you can withdraw to make it last 25, 30 or 35 years
Most people plan the other way round. They know how many years they need to cover and want to know what they can spend. This table shows the largest starting monthly withdrawal that lasts exactly that long, rising 3% a year, with a 5% return.
| Savings | 25 years | 30 years | 35 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 | $1,275 a month | $1,110 a month | $993 a month |
| $500,000 | $2,126 a month | $1,851 a month | $1,656 a month |
| $750,000 | $3,189 a month | $2,776 a month | $2,484 a month |
| $1,000,000 | $4,252 a month | $3,702 a month | $3,313 a month |
For a 30-year retirement, each $100,000 of savings supports roughly $370 a month in the first year under these assumptions. That is a quick way to sanity check a plan before you run the exact numbers.
The 4% rule and the 2026 version of it
The 4% rule comes from a 1994 study by financial planner William Bengen. He tested US market history and found that a first-year withdrawal of 4% of a portfolio, raised each year for inflation, never ran out in less than 33 years in his historical data. On $1 million, 4% is $40,000 in the first year, or about $3,333 a month.
Morningstar revisits the question every year using forward-looking return estimates. Its latest research puts the safe starting withdrawal rate for people retiring in 2026 at 3.9%, for a 30-year retirement with a 90% chance of success.
Neither figure is a promise, and both assume a mix of stocks and bonds. They are useful as a check. If your plan starts with a withdrawal well above 4% of your savings, the question of how long will my money last in retirement probably has a shorter answer than you would like.
Why returns and inflation change the answer so much
Small changes in either assumption move the result by years. Here is $500,000 with a $3,000 monthly withdrawal at different returns, keeping inflation at 3%:
| Annual return | Money lasts |
|---|---|
| 3% | 14 years |
| 4% | 15 years, 1 month |
| 5% | 16 years, 4 months |
| 6% | 18 years |
| 7% | 20 years, 1 month |
Inflation works the other way. At 2% inflation the same plan lasts 17 years and 11 months, and at 4% it lasts 15 years and 2 months.
These results assume the same return every year, which never happens. The order of returns matters as much as the average. A market fall in the first few years of retirement, while you are also withdrawing, leaves a smaller balance to recover than the same fall ten years later. This is called sequence of returns risk, and it is the main reason to keep some margin between your plan and the calculator's answer.
How Social Security changes the math
Social Security reduces how much you need to take from savings, which is often the biggest lever available. Benefits also rise with inflation: the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment was 2.8%. We cover what to expect next year in our guide to the Social Security COLA for 2027.
To answer how long will my money last in retirement with Social Security included, subtract your benefit from your monthly spending and enter only what is left as your withdrawal. Someone who spends $4,000 a month and receives $2,000 from Social Security needs $2,000 a month from savings. With $500,000 at a 5% return and 3% inflation, that lasts 27 years. Taking the full $4,000 from savings would last 11 years and 9 months.
Waiting to claim raises your monthly benefit for life, which lowers what you need from savings later. How much it helps depends on your age and earnings record, so check your own figures in your Social Security account.
Costs people leave out
Two costs are easy to leave out of the answer to how long will my money last in retirement. Health care is the larger one. Fidelity estimates that a 65-year-old retiring in 2026 may need about $185,500 in after-tax savings to cover health care in retirement, for one person. Premiums for drug coverage change every year, as our look at Medicare Part D premiums for 2027 shows.
Taxes are the other. Withdrawals from a traditional 401(k) or IRA are taxed as income, so a $3,000 withdrawal does not leave $3,000 to spend. You also have to start taking required minimum distributions at age 73 under current IRS rules, whether you need the money or not. Enter your withdrawal before tax, and plan for the tax separately.
Ways to make your retirement savings last longer
If the answer to how long will my money last in retirement comes back shorter than you need, these changes help most.
Start with a lower withdrawal. The tables above show that trimming the monthly amount adds years quickly, more than any other change.
Cut spending in years when markets fall. Taking less after a bad year protects the balance when it is most exposed to sequence of returns risk.
Cover fixed costs with guaranteed income where you can, such as Social Security, a pension or an annuity, and use savings for everything else.
Keep some money invested for growth. A portfolio earning 3% instead of 5% cut more than two years off the $500,000 example.
Run your plan through the calculator at least once a year. Your balance, spending and the rate of inflation all change, and so does the answer to how long will my money last in retirement.
Frequently asked questions
How long will my savings last with the 4% rule?
In Bengen's historical data, a 4% starting withdrawal raised each year for inflation never ran out in less than 33 years. That is a benchmark, not a guarantee, and Morningstar's current estimate for a 30-year retirement is slightly lower at 3.9%.
How long will $500,000 last in retirement?
At a 5% return and 3% inflation, $500,000 lasts about 16 years and 4 months with $3,000 a month, and 27 years with $2,000 a month.
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
Under the same assumptions, $1 million lasts about 27 years with $4,000 a month and more than 40 years with $3,000 a month.
How long will my money last in retirement if the market falls early?
Probably not as long as the averages in this guide suggest. Withdrawing from a portfolio that has just fallen locks in the loss, so a bad first few years shortens the result more than the same fall later on. Taking a little less in those years helps.
What return should I assume?
Use a return that matches how your money is actually invested, after fees. A lower figure, such as 4% or 5% for a balanced portfolio, builds in a safety margin.
Does this include taxes?
No. The figures here are before tax. Withdrawals from traditional retirement accounts are taxed as income, so allow for tax on top of your spending when you choose a withdrawal.
This article is for general information and is not financial advice. For decisions about your own retirement, speak to a qualified financial adviser.
